Section 3.8

    Leakage

    Leakage refers to the unintended displacement of carbon emissions or removal from the project area due to restoration activities. In the case of mangrove restoration, leakage is generally minimal, but it can vary depending on the specific activities and surrounding land-use dynamics. Based on the IPCC 2013 Wetlands Supplement and common carbon accounting practices, the following approach is used:

    • Tier 1: Leakage is assumed to be zero, as mangrove restoration typically involves low-impact activities like planting native species and avoiding land-use changes that could lead to increased emissions. This approach follows the IPCC guidelines that suggest leakage is not a significant risk in such low-disturbance activities.
    • Tier 2: Leakage is still assumed to be zero, but active monitoring of the surrounding area is implemented. Through the use of a computer vision model, Carbontribe tracks any changes in the landscape around the restoration site. This monitoring helps identify and mitigate potential leakage risks, ensuring that no unintended deforestation or land-use changes occur nearby.
    • Tier 3: In cases where higher leakage risks are identified, such as potential emissions from nearby deforestation or infrastructure development, a detailed analysis is performed. IPCC guidelines will be followed to assess and quantify potential emissions displacement, ensuring that leakage is accurately accounted for.

    3.8.1 Calculations of Leakage

    For projects involving mangroves with a higher risk of leakage—such as those displacing coastal activities, aquaculture, or local resource harvesting—leakage must be considered in the calculations. Leakage is determined using the affected area, the percentage of displaced activity, and carbon stock differentials, as per the formula:

    Leakage=Affected Area×%Activity Shift×CO2 Stock\text{Leakage} = \text{Affected Area} \times \%\text{Activity Shift} \times \text{CO}_2\text{ Stock}
    (3.8)

    In cases where the specific displacement location is unknown, average CO₂ stock values for natural mangrove forests in the region or host country are applied.

    Project EmissionsOverview of Parameters and Sources